UFC Fight Night 158: Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Odds & Picks


Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone
36-12-0, 1NC
8:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 14, 2019
Rogers Arena Vancouver BC Canada
Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje
20-2-0
TV: ESPN
UFC Fight Night 158: Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Odds & Picks

Vancouver, Canada has gotten a tremendous main event for the UFC’s return there. In the lightweight division, two fan favorites in Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje will throw down in a fight that promises to bring fireworks.

Although the fight is still well over a month away on September 14, 2019, BetOnline has released the opening odds for the fight.

Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Opening Odds

Fighter Odds at BetOnline
Donald Cerrone +185
Justin Gaethje -220

Will You Get Better Lines?

This is a very hard fight to call. But, yes I expect the line to move. I think the oddsmakers opened it too high on Gaethje and a lot of action will come in on the fan-favorite in Cerrone.

“Cowboy” also deserves the action to come his way. Time and time again he has proved people wrong like beating Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta.

There, he dominated both and scored a TKO win over Hernandez. Although I expect the line to tighten closer into the +120 range for Cerrone, and into the -150 favorite range for Gaethje, I still think the former World Series of Fighting champion should be favored like he is now.

He frankly deserves to be favored as he has proven success at lightweight with wins over the likes of Michael Johnson, Edson Barboza, and James Vick, and tough wars with Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier that were close fights.

Donald Cerrone Tale of the tape Justin Gaethje
36 Age 30
1.85 m Height 1.8 m
70.3 kg Weight 70.3 kg
185.4 cm Reach 177.8 cm

What is the Best Bet?

I think at +175 there is a ton of value on Donald Cerrone. Which is why I expect the lines to draw closer as the fight gets near. Although I think there is value on “Cowboy” I am not certain he will win this fight. I think this is practically a pick’em fight. Both fighters are among the top-tier at lightweight and have shown they are not someone to be messed with.

Cerrone can utilize his pressure and make this fight similar to what he did against Al Iaquinta where he just dominated it from start to finish.

Gaethje has unreal knockout power and brutal leg kicks that can slow Cerrone down. If he does that he can then land that overhand right and knock him out.

Or, Cerrone can utilize his pressure and make this fight similar to what he did against Al Iaquinta where he just dominated it from start to finish. Regardless, it should be an amazing fight. But one that I think the value is on Cerrone right now, as I am surprised the odds are this far apart to open up.

Cerrone vs Gaethje Odds

Hour Team Opening BOVADA.LV BetOnline Intertops
7:00p
Justin Gaethje
Donald Cerrone
draw
6:00p
Glover Teixeira
Nikita Krylov
draw
6:00p
Antonio Carlos Junior
Uriah Hall
draw
6:00p
Misha Cirkunov
Jimmy Crute
draw
6:00p
Marcin Tybura
Augusto Sakai
draw
6:00p
Todd Duffee
Jeff Hughes
draw

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