UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Odds & Picks


Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman
15-1-0
10:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 14, 2019
T Mobile Arena Las Vegas , NV États-Unis
Colby Covington
Colby Covington
15-1-0
TV: PPV
UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Odds & Picks
The UFC welterweight title clash featuring Kamaru Usman (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1) is finally happening, and I think I’m almost ready to declare this as one of the best years the UFC has ever had.

 

Usman (-170) vs Covington (+140)

As you can clearly see, Usman is the bookies’ favorite to win. In fact, he’s a pretty big favorite with odds at -170.I’m a little surprised to see Usman at this price against Covington, even if he has been favored in eight of his last nine fights by the oddsmakers. The only bout in the last nine where “The Nigerian Nightmare” hasn’t been favored was against Tyron Woodley. This was the fight that won Usman the UFC welterweight title.

Covington approaches this fight as an underdog for the first time since he fought Demian Maia in Brazil. The most outspoken welterweight in MMA has never been a plus-money underdog while fighting under the UFC. This will be music to the ears of his fans or anyone else planning on betting on Covington to beat Usman.In my opinion, this fight is a hell of a lot closer than the odds suggest. There’s little to nothing between these two guys, but I’m going to explain what those small differences are and how they could influence this fight. First, I’m going to break down Usman and Covington, starting with the challenger.

Kamaru Usman  Tale of the tape Colby Covington
32 Age 31
1.83 m Height 1.8 m
77.1 kg Weight 77.1 kg
193 cm Reach 182.9 cm

 Aside from that, Colby Covington has shown us time and time again why we shouldn’t underestimate him. He hasn’t been beaten in almost four years and has passed every single major test since then with flying colors.Covington’s volume punching and pressure game will be a problem for Usman. He’s tough and will not be afraid of standing up to anything Usman throws at him. Oh, and one of the most overlooked factors in this fight is Covington’s ability to get under Usman’s skin. Covington will be winding him up before this fight and will own the psychological advantage heading into the bout. What really swings it for me here is Covington’s odds. +215 is great betting value.

Pick: Colby Covington +140

 

Holloway (-165) Vs Volkanovski (+135)

I’m with the sportsbooks with regards to Holloway vs. Volkanovski being a close fight. I’m not sure if the odds reflect just how dominant Holloway has been, however. Remember, Volkanovski is 7-0 in the UFC and 20-1 in pro MMA. In May, he beat former dominant featherweight champ Jose Aldo on the judges’ scorecards and even knocked out former title challenger Chad Mendes in December 2018.He has proven his quality but will be taking another step up when he enters the Octagon against Holloway at UFC 245.  Others have been where Volkanovski finds himself now. Remember Brian Ortega? The guy that was unbeaten heading into a title fight with Holloway, only to be bludgeoned by the Hawaiian? 

Max Holloway Tale of the tape
Alexander Volkanovski
27 Age 31
1.8 m Height 1.68 m
65.8 kg Weight 65.8 kg
175.3 cm Reach 181.6 cm

I wouldn’t bet on Holloway knocking Volkanovski out, but there is a chance that he could bust him up in the same way that he did to Ortega. There is a difference between Volkanovski and Ortega when it comes to striking defense — I believe the latter to be better on the feet. He has better positioning, head movement, and overall defensive awareness, so I don’t see him getting stopped. Holloway has been in the cage with some of the greatest strikers and most powerful knockout artists in the lower divisions of MMA. He has never been knocked out or even stopped on the feet.It would be a huge shock to see Holloway succumb to a stoppage loss in this bout. 

I think Holloway is too smart and far too tricky for Volkanovski. The Australian will be relying on his power to get the best of his opponent, and I think that could ultimately lead to him gassing out in the later rounds. Regardless, I can only see one winner in this fight, and that is Max Holloway. He is a special fighter and always seems to find a way to turn his opponents’ strengths against them.

Pick: Max Holloway -165

 

Nunes (-300)  Vs De Randamie (+230)

The heavy favorite for this fight is, unsurprisingly, Amanda Nunes. Nunes is -300 to beat de Randamie, which sounds just about right to me. I can see her justifying these odds as she has done whenever she’s been favored to win a fight over the past few years. The Brazilian is a legend of MMA and is expected to make it to 10 wins in a row when she meets de Randamie for the second time. Germaine de Randamie is the +230 underdog against Nunes.

Once again, I’m not surprised by these odds, as they reflect where both women are in their careers. Still, de Randamie’s odds are far from astronomical. She does have the chance of an upset. Now, for those of you who occasionally dip their toes in the water when betting on MMA, you might not be aware of what these two can bring to the party. So, allow me to introduce you to de Randamie and Nunes, starting with “The Iron Lady.”

Amanda Nunes Tale of the tape Germaine De Randamie
31 Age 35
1.73 m Height 1.75 m
61.2 kg Weight 61.2 kg
175.3 cm Reach 180.3 cm

Nunes, the champ, is the heavy favorite to beat de Randamie. There are no surprises with the bookies’ odds. I would probably have her win at an even tighter price if I was an oddsmaker.Some of you are going to be betting heavily on Nunes. Others will probably not bet too much. Regardless, I’d like to finish my breakdown of this fight by reminding you all to bet smart on UFC 245. Remember to only bet with the safest UFC betting sites in order to make sure you are looked after. You should always be able to feel safe in the knowledge that the betting site you are using is secure.

Pick: Amanda Nunes -300

Usman vs Covington Odds

Hour Team Opening BOVADA.LV BetOnline Intertops
11:59p
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
draw
11:00p
Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski
draw
11:00p
Amanda Nunes
Germaine De Randamie
draw
8:00p
Petr Yan
Urijah Faber
draw
8:30p
Marlon Moraes
Jose Aldo
draw

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